Re: {Tidal Potomac Fly Rodders} River Flood Predictions | 25' At Point Of Rocks

The NOAA level forecasts are based on an algorithm which incorporates the QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) current river levels, soil moisture and or saturation levels while discounting for solar radiation and leaf absorption. It's 50% accurate more than 24 hours out.  Usually overdone but better to error on the side of caution. On the other hand the amounts showing up on radar estimates over the Shenandoah Valley and western Maryland this afternoon are very impressive.  LF is forecasted to go to 11'+.  I'm betting 8' is a shoe in.

As for the sewer overflowing.  That is was a 20+ year event with localized amounts in the 6" range causing most of it.  This model run does not forecast nearly the same amount as last.

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

On Thu, May 15, 2014 at 4:39 PM, Rob Snowhite <rob@robsnowhite.com> wrote:

Carlos and I have been discussing this on the instagrams. Do you think this is correct?

What will DC Water and others do to prevent millions of gallons of raw sewage from going into the river? You would think they would have a solution after 50m gallons went in two weeks ago. These are predicted level rises that don't always pan out but it will be interesting to see how much rain we get.

 

Rob Snowhite

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