Well the only thing you can do to figure and predict the water temp is to look at comparables. Find a similarly sized stream at a similar elevation in a similar area and you can have reasonable confidence in predicting how high the water temp will rise the next day. In the case of Passage, I would look at other Shenandoah flow gauges to see if they have temp readings. I may be wrong but I think one of the gauges on the Rapidan will have water temp readings.
-- Seriously though, if there's not a strong likelihood of the water temp rising above 40 degrees, save yourself the cold fingers. I've tried to test the limit many a time. It's amazing what 1 degree warmer can do. Not to say that you can't catch a trout in 39 degrees, but I've managed it so seldom that I don't bother any more.
http://www.tpfr.org
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